Surprising, but not condemnable

A Jordan Times Editorial

If Fateh's West Bank leader Marwan Barghouthi was looking to spring a fast one, he managed it masterfully on Wednesday by announcing his candidacy for the PNA presidency in the upcoming elections, only three hours before the deadline. So close had his cards been to his chest that even his supporters were taken by surprise, some even vowing to work to make him step back down.

A stunned interim leadership could only denounce the move as "astonishing and reprehensible," in the words of Tayeb Abdelrahim, a close adviser to the late president Yasser Arafat, while pundits immediately raised Barghouthi as the favourite to win, above PLO leader Mahmoud Abbas.

Barghouthi's about turn - only six days ago he had announced that he would not run - was not the only setback for the temporary Palestinian leadership. Hamas had earlier announced its decision not to partake in presidential elections, no great surprise in itself, but, more damaging, the movement also called on all its supporters to take no part at all in the process, a move that could be seen as delegitimising any eventual winner. Some 75 per cent of eligible Palestinian voters have so far registered.

So, the post-Arafat era, which had started off almost suspiciously smoothly, is witnessing some bumps in the road. The question now is, are these speed bumps or roadblocks?

Barghouthi's candidacy could cause an irreparable split in Fateh, the largest Palestinian political faction. The group already suffers from tensions between the so-called young guard, of which Barghouthi is a leading member, and the old guard, to which Abbas belongs. There is also an uneasy balance between the politics of the group and members of the many armed groups affiliated with Fateh, generally collected under the name the Aqsa Martyrs Brigades.

Neither division is as clear-cut as it may seem. While Barghouthi is a leader of the young guards, not all welcomed his about-face, and while Abbas is a member of the old guard, his penchant for financial probity and transparency will put him on a collision course with others in that grouping. Abbas' opposition to the armed Intifada should estrange him from the Brigades, but two Brigades groups have already condemned Barghouthi's decision to run.

It's politics, and Fateh, a non-ideological group, is suffering from lack of a clear political programme. While a split in the group would create instability, perhaps it is better that it happens now, rather than later.

Hamas is playing that particular game much better, though at some point it too needs to declare its hand. Staying out of the presidential elections is one thing, but the legislative elections, if it comes to that, are very different matter. A Fateh in disarray may strengthen Hamas, but it will eventually lead to clearer politics from all concerned.

Certainly, no one should criticise Barghouthi's decision in principle. He is exercising his legitimate democratic right, and should he win, and should the Israelis keep him in prison, the Palestinians will have their own Nelson Mandela, something that in the bigger picture is not to be sniffed at.

This editorial was printed in the Friday-Saturday, December 3-4, 2004 edition of the Jordan Times. It is used here with permission.