Reconciliation before election

by George S. Hishmeh

Although the Palestinian electoral process seems to be proceeding smoothly, especially after Hamas, the key Palestinian Islamist group, has announced suspension of its raids on Israel, the same could not be said of Iraq. Security concerns are crucial to both Palestinians and Iraqis who are scheduled to go to elections next month - two events that will have far-reaching effects on the future of the region.

First sign of major trouble in Iraq surfaced when 15 prominent members of the Iraqi Constituent Conference, which included the little-known Iraqi Christian Democratic Party and the Iraqi Women's Association, announced on Nov. 15 their boycott of the elections scheduled for Jan. 30. But a key member of this group is the Association of Muslim Scholars, which wields greater influence in this strife-torn country, especially in the so-called Sunni Triangle.

"The attack on Iraqi cities, especially the savage annihilation crime in Fallujah, represents a definite obstacle for Iraqis to adequately take part in the political process under the control of the occupation and in the absence of sovereignty," this Sunni-dominated group said in a joint statement. "How can it be possible to hold national dialogue and engage in the political process while criminal conduct is targeting the people?"

One of Britain's top medical journals, The Lancet, reported in late October that the death toll in Iraq is far higher than previously believed. A population-based field study it published estimated that Iraq has suffered 98,000 deaths in the 18 months since the US-led invasion of Iraq. An estimated 60,000 of these deaths are attributed to violence, mainly reported to be caused by US air attacks.

The boycott call was followed 10 days later by a request from 17 political parties meeting at the home of Adnan Pachachi, an elder statesman who at one point was favoured by the US and the UN to be president of the interim Iraqi government, to delay the elections for six months. This would allow "for changes in the security situation and completion of necessary arrangements in organisation and administration". But this call was not endorsed by the all-important Shiite parties, who believe they are one step from gaining full power in Baghdad, since they reportedly constitute the majority in the country. Surprisingly, the two key Kurdish parties who control northern Iraq, initially endorsed the boycott move.

"If Sunni parties and voters decide to sit out the elections, the outcome could be seen as illegitimate," reported The New York Times, "and the guerrilla war, which is being led by Sunnis, could intensify."

This monkey wrench has yet to deter the Bush administration. Despite its upper lip stance over the election date, the Bush administration finds itself caught between a rock and a hard place. The insurgency is now spreading to northern Iraq. Even the US commander there, Brig. Gen. Carter Hamm, has warned that the non-stop violence in Mosul is undermining efforts to hold elections next month in this strategic northern city.

A face-saving formula for the Bush administration, short of endorsing postponing the election, appears hard to find. Erik K. Gustafson, executive director of Education for Peace in Iraq Centre, a human rights advocacy group, believes that the Bush administration had erred in hugging too closely the Kurdish and the Shiite communities while neglecting the Sunnis, who were in effect the ruling class there. The de-Baathification programme has unwittingly, if not unjustly, disenfranchised many who served the Saddam Hussein regime primarily to ensure a decent livelihood. He believes that political participation by all groups is the reasonable way out of this morass and to avoid "fuelling the insurgency."

Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's recent halfhearted efforts at meeting with some Iraqi figures in the Arab world and in the West should be further encouraged in the next few weeks. He needs to reach out to the Iraqi exiles and those remaining at home in order to gain their seal of approval for the coming election. Otherwise, a boycott by the Sunnis and others in the country would deny any legitimacy to the emerging regime - the 275-member Transitional National Assembly. This new body will be making laws, unlike the current interim government, and will also elect from its members a president and two deputies. They, in turn, will choose a prime minister who also has to be in the assembly. However, the assembly's main role is to draw up a draft constitution by Aug. 15 and submit this to a referendum by Oct. 15. Two months later, elections will be held on the basis of the new constitution, and by the end of 2005, a fully constitutional government is scheduled to take over.

According to the UN Security Council Resolution 1546, the mandate of the foreign troops in Iraq will then cease, though they could be asked to stay by whatever new government takes over. Hence, the importance of these reconciliatory moves that should be doubled in the immediate future.

This article was published in the Friday-Saturday, December 3-4, 2004 edition of the Jordan Times. It is used here with permission.