Palestinian election - the birth of modern Arab politics?

by Rami G. Khouri

Forget for the moment the White House spin about Iraq being the place where Arab pluralistic democracy will be born and from where it will spread throughout the region. Look now, instead, to the Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip. Something important, even historic in terms of modern Arab history, is happening there these days - a real, contested election for president is taking place, whose results are not known ahead of time. Multiple candidates for the presidency of the Palestinian National Authority offer ordinary citizens a genuine choice among different policy approaches and governance styles. This is novel, refreshing and long overdue for the entire Arab world.

Many politicians and commentators around the world, especially in the US, view this process almost totally through the lens of reviving Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and moving towards a negotiated settlement. This is a noble and urgent goal that is worth achieving, but such a perspective misses the more important point about the Palestinian presidential election: it represents the birth of modern politics in the Arab world through a credible, legitimate process of contesting power that has not been achieved in any Arab country to date.

Perhaps a dozen candidates will present themselves for the Palestinian presidential election scheduled for Jan. 9, but three stand out: Mahmoud Abbas, Marwan Barghouthi and Mustafa Barghouthi. They reflect a variety of Palestinian political perspectives and traditions that captures the wide scope of Palestinian and Arab political pluralism (even though the main Islamist groups, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, are boycotting the election).

The striking, even revolutionary, development in this race within the wider Arab political scene is simply that it is a real race. The candidates divide public support in a manner that mirrors the norms in other established democracies (or even young ones, like Ukraine). The latest public opinion polls suggest that Abbas and Marwan Barghouthi are virtually tied with some 30-40 per cent public support each, with Mustafa Barghouthi running third with only some 10 per cent support.

This is a refreshing and significant change from the modern tradition of Arab presidential elections that see established leaders repeatedly reelected with over 95 per cent of the vote, in processes that insult the intelligence and rights of Arab citizens and ravage and weaken the integrity of Arab political systems. We have had reasonably credible parliamentary elections in a score of Arab countries in recent decades, but nowhere has an election that reflected the will of an Arab citizenry led to changes in the decision-making power structure or in a country's key policies.

The fascination and anticipation I and many others feel today as we follow the Palestinian election reflect the dynamic that has been absent in all other Arab elections to date: the vote's results could bring about real changes in national policies, on critical issues such as domestic governance, ties with Israel, intra-Arab relations and economic policy.

Not only is the Palestinian election a real horse race so far in terms of the leading candidates' support among the public. It also reflects the fact that political, economic and military power (the guns and the money) has become very diffused throughout Palestinian society during the past decade, due to the impact of the Israeli occupation and some recent mistakes made by the prevailing power elite that had been led by Yasser Arafat for so long. Thus, it becomes possible for Marwan Barghouthi, who is serving multiple life sentences in an Israeli jail, to be a credible candidate who challenges front-runner Abbas.

Barghouthi is credible because he reflects the sentiments and aims of many younger Palestinians who have been dissatisfied with the results of the Arafat-led majority's policies since the Oslo accords gave the Palestinians self-rule in most West Bank and Gaza towns. He and Mustafa Barghouthi also represent the strong desire of Palestinians to develop truly democratic and accountable governance systems, and to minimise corruption and waste in public life. Not surprisingly, the mainstream of Arafat's Fateh movement that nominated Abbas for president has lashed out strongly against Marwan Barghouthi's candidacy, claiming it disrupts Palestinian national unity and fragments Fateh.

In the final analysis, the Palestinian people will decide these issues at the ballot box, which is how it should be. Ideally, a clear winner will emerge with a majority of voters supporting him, and we will also get a good picture of the real support of the various political groups among the citizenry. It will be important to see if Islamist support is very deep, and whether supporters of Hamas, for example, would see one of the Barghouthis representing their demands for better, cleaner governance. A credible, elected president would face the challenge of forming a government of national unity that brings together the different Palestinian political trends in a majority that could negotiate an honourable peace accord with Israel.

This Palestinian real presidential election is a revolutionary development for the Arab world that must be acknowledged and fostered with all available resources. Its success could prove to be the key to promoting democratic governance in other Arab countries and then moving ahead on five critical issues that plague the entire Arab world: resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict; developing democratic governance systems; promoting widespread social, economic and political reforms; achieving sustainable human development; and, finally, after two centuries, working out sensible relations with major Western military powers, some of whom are now parked in Iraq.

The Palestinian presidential contest is about much more than Palestine, which is why it must be protected and promoted vigorously by all concerned parties in the region and beyond.

This article was published in the Wednesday, December 8, 2004 edition of the Jordan Times. It is used here with permission.