Major challenges on the road to peace in the Middle East

by Musa Keilani

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon seems to have been rescued by opposition leader Shimon Peres in what could turn out to be a positive signal for the hoped-for resumption of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. But is the peace process rescued in the real meaning of the word rescue?

The Sharon-Peres coalition will see some of the hardliners out of the Israeli government who oppose the resumption of peace talks with the Palestinians and also Sharon's plan for unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and to consolidate the Israeli grip on the West Bank. It will also avert early elections. Therefore, it seems safe to say that shortly after the Palestinian elections on Jan. 30, there will be some movement in the peace process.

With Marwan Barghouthi opting to bow out of the race, it would also seem that Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) is poised to clinch the presidency. He has already set the ground for resuming peace talks with Israel by seeking to strike a balance between the hardline positions of groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad and the Israeli demand for an end to armed resistance as a precondition for talks.

However, the situation is unpredictable. It does not really need Hamas or Islamic Jihad to carry out armed attacks and suicide bombings. Israel's brutal crackdown against the residents of the West Bank and Gaza has created thousands of young Palestinians ready to sacrifice their life in retaliation for the loss of loved ones and houses. It is naive to believe that they would await orders from the Hamas or Islamic Jihad leadership to carry out their actions of armed resistance to serve the cause, as well as to avenge the deaths of family members. The Israeli killing over the weekend of at least nine Palestinians has only added to the ranks of those who are willing to give their life in any action that would inflict loss of life and damages to Israelis.

Sharon has not really understood the Arab medusa formula and reality that 10 or 20 Palestinians spring up and join armed resistance for every Palestinian death caused by the Israeli army. Add to the fury of the Palestinians the gloomy reality that there is very little that gives them any glimpse of hope for a bright future, given the shattered economy of the West Bank and Gaza and Sharon's refusal to accept that no military action, however severe, would lead to quelling the resistance and, if anything, it would only inflame the sense of frustration and despair among the Palestinians.

We, in Jordan, have always cautioned that one of the key pillars to build the peace process was to create an environment in the West Bank and Gaza where the Palestinians feel they stand to lose something by engaging in armed resistance. The international donor community did step in to help the Palestinians following the Oslo agreements, but the aid was too thin and too stretched to make any real impact on the quality of life of the Palestinians.

At the outset of the Washington conference, that was held three weeks after the Oslo accords were signed at the White House, it was estimated that nearly $15 billion was needed in five years to make any real difference on the ground for the economy of the West Bank and Gaza. At that point, the donors came up with around $2.5 billion in pledges, but a good chunk of that money was used up by the donors themselves through technicalities, such as feasibility, viability and other studies for mega projects that never materialised. The same pattern followed since then, with the donor money shrinking every year and then coming to almost total stop by the time the Oslo process was all but buried by the political changes in Israel and the intransigence of the hardline camp which followed the regime that signed the Oslo accords.

Indeed, the Oslo accords were not perfect, but they were the only agreements that were there at that point in time, and many people had hopes that they would lead to a just and fair settlement of the root conflict. Of course, there could be no denial of the fact that part of the international aid given to the Palestinians since the Oslo accords were signed went to the wrong channel and direction. Therefore, it is welcome news that Arab countries, the European Union and the US are planning up to $8 billion in aid to the Palestinians in four years. The condition is, of course, that the Palestinians conduct smooth elections and the newly elected government check the armed resistance.

Israel has to help the process by removing its stranglehold on the Palestinians, by lifting roadblocks and checkpoints in the West Bank and taking other measures that would ease the life of the Palestinians living under its occupation.

Indeed, Abbas faces a major challenge. He needs to set up a transparent mechanism that would ensure the most efficient use of donor funds so that the money is spent on creating realities on the ground that would make a difference in the life of the Palestinians. Only if Abbas succeeds in having a team that is committed to the vision of creating something real and tangible for the Palestinians there is any hope for a real breakthrough and to rescue the peace process. And he needs the help of everyone.

This article was published in the Sunday, December 19, 2004 edition of the Jordan Times. It is used here with permission.