Promise unfulfilled?

by Ghassan Khatib

The year 2005 is not likely to see any dramatic change in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict unless the major players are prepared to allow it to happen.

The main reason this year is set to be a continuation of the last rather than a breakthrough is that the prime mover in the conflict--the Israeli government--appears to be neither changing it positions nor its behavior. As such, three major obstacles to any positive developments will carry over: the Israeli government will continue to avoid negotiations; the use of force against the Palestinian population will go on; and so will settlement expansions and the various means of collective punishments meted out against the Palestinians with all that that entails in terms of negative economic consequences and resentment.

Meanwhile, Israel continues to successfully deceive the third parties to the conflict, whether the US or others, with its talk of an illusory withdrawal from certain parts of occupied Palestinian territory and the evacuation of certain settlements. This talk is no more than a political tactic to serve the internal and external purposes of the current Israeli government.

It thus follows that there will be a continuation of the disengagement of the third parties. The US is showing no sign of stepping up its own efforts to enforce the first phase of the roadmap, nor is Washington allowing the quartet countries to do so. The almost identical ideological make-up of the US administration and the Israeli government puts them on the same page in this regard, while the American engagement in Iraq is keeping the US busy.

Changes on the Palestinian political scene also will not have a dramatic effect on the conflict and Palestinian-Israeli relations. The Palestinian positions and practices are not the major reasons for the current stagnation and confrontations. In any case, the current leadership transition, significant developments in the democratization process, the accelerated reform process as well as the absence of the late President Yasser Arafat, who was blamed by Israel for the confrontations over the past four years, will not affect the situation on the ground and relations between the two sides as long as they are not met by positive Israeli countermeasures. Israel must show a willingness to fulfill its obligations under the first phase of the roadmap, including stopping the expansion of settlements, violence against Palestinian civilians, and military incursions inside Palestinian Authority areas, including checkpoints and closures.

If such measures are not forthcoming it is possible that the second half of this year might witness some internal Palestinian difficulties. If the current pro-peace and democratic trend within Palestinian political life and the obvious de-radicalization of the general population do not bring Palestinians nearer the fulfillment of their legitimate rights and aspirations, it will play into the hands of the opposition and extremists who will again gain the upper hand by arguing that the peaceful approach is not working.

If the international community, and especially the US, is prepared to engage actively with the peace camp in Israel and the Palestinian government by pushing to resume negotiations and enforcing adherence to obligations obtaining under the roadmap, 2005 has the potential to bring positive change. After four years of confrontations, neither side has achieved anything. But the Israeli government will not change its policies without pressure from the US. And if the Israeli government does not change direction, there will be no change on the ground and another opportunity will go beckoning.

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- Published 3/1/2005 (c) bitterlemons.org

Ghassan Khatib is coeditor of bitterlemons.org and bitterlemons-international.org. He is the Palestinian Authority minister of labor, acting minister of planning and has been a political analyst and media contact for many years.