Another year of violence

an interview with Kamran al-Karadaghi

BI: How do you think elections, if they happen, will affect the coming year in Iraq?

Karadaghi: I don't exclude the possibility that the elections will be delayed for a while, maybe not a long time, but for a couple of months, because it's obvious now that more and more Iraqi groups and parties are very worried about the possibility of holding the elections on time.

If elections are held, I really don't think they will have a great impact on the security situation in Iraq, which is the main concern for all Iraqis. Politically, no matter what the result, I think Iraq will still probably be ruled by a kind of consensus among the various political, ethnic or religious groups, because otherwise I don't think any particular group can really rule Iraq now or for the foreseeable future just on the basis of a majority count at elections.

BI: How concerned are you that Iraq will break down into ethnic civil war, and how can the security situation be improved?

Karadaghi: I was just reading an interview with the head of Iraqi security who predicts the current violence will continue throughout 2005. He thinks that only after this year might the violence lessen, and only once Iraqis become able to strengthen their security forces and army and so on. According to his figures, the insurgency numbers some 20,000 fighters and a further 200,000 people offer support to them, so it will be a very difficult task.

My opinion is that unless the Iraqi government and the coalition come with a plan of action rather than reaction, which has characterized their approach so far, to confront the insurgents, they will be in trouble.

BI: You mean a military plan?

Karadaghi: Militarily it's very important, because the insurgents, led really by the Baath party, are very determined and daring, they have knowledge and understand the logistics. They lost power and they want to regain it. That is the goal. I think, if you read some of the statements by the leadership of the Baath party, they will accept nothing less then regaining power. They even say their goal is to restore the legitimacy of the situation before April 9, 2003.

BI: In the year ahead, do you foresee any dramatic change in the US or coalition position?

Karadaghi: It seems they may be considering changing some positions, but so far nothing is obvious. I think it would probably be political suicide for the American administration if they decide to leave under the current circumstances. If we assume that they left tomorrow, you can be assured the previous regime would return to power within days.

BI: Will there be a greater momentum toward dividing the country among the various ethnic communities during the year?

Karadaghi: There is a kind of de facto self-rule. The Kurdish areas have been ruling themselves for the past 12 years and they are determined to keep it that way. In the south in the Shi'ite dominated areas, there is no sympathy for the insurgency. The insurgency is concentrated in the so-called Sunni triangle, and that is where the popular support comes from.

But will the situation develop into a real division of Iraq? That I doubt. I think it is unrealistic and I don't think we should fear such a development.

BI: What do you think the effects of Iraq may be on surrounding countries?

Karadaghi: Well, I think the neighboring countries, particularly Syria and Iran will try to do their best to influence events in Iraq, maybe by proxy. The Iraqi government is saying openly that the post-Saddam Baath leadership is in Syria and Syria can stop this if they want to. Iran is also interfering, and Turkey has its own concerns about northern Iraq. Saudi Arabia, I think, would like very much to have stability in Iraq, and let's not forget Jordan, but in general, these countries, especially the Arab countries, could really do much more to help stabilize Iraq. Maybe for their own reasons they think it is better if the new Iraq is not established or fails. I think that is an illusion, because if Iraq falls into an abyss it will directly affect the entire region.

BI: Do you think these countries will make more of an effort in this regard in 2005?

Karadaghi: It doesn't look that way. They have their own interests and I have not seen any indications that they will be helpful.

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- Published 6/1/2005 (c) bitterlemons-international.org. Used here with permission.

Kamran al-Karadaghi is an Iraqi commentator and the editorial director of the London-based Institute for War and Peace Reporting. The views expressed here are his own.