Beginning the end?

by George S. Hishmeh

There was understandable euphoria in the United States, particularly within the Bush administration, as in many parts of the world, over the defiance of the Iraqi people who participated in the historic and relatively peaceful elections in their war-torn country last Sunday despite the threats of the insurgency.

There were eyewitness accounts from various regions in country, and especially Baghdad where private cars were banned to prevent car bombs, of Iraqis parading on their way to the polls in higher than expected numbers. Nevertheless, this first free election in 50 years still saw about 40 people killed, including nine suicide bombers.

"The people of Iraq have spoken to the world, and the world is hearing the voice of freedom from the centre of the Middle East," declared President George W. Bush in a televised statement. "In great numbers and under great risk, Iraqis have shown their commitment to democracy. By participating in free elections, the Iraqi people have firmly rejected the anti-democratic ideology of the terrorists."

Even The New York Times, which is often critical of the Bush administration policy in Iraq, declared in an editorial last Monday: "Yet today, along with other Americans, whether supporters or critics of the war, we rejoice in a heartening advance by the Iraqi people. For now at least, the multiple political failure that marked the run-up to the voting stand was eclipsed by a remarkably successful election."

But those who voted enthusiastically in the election shared a recognisable common feeling with their other countrymen who stayed away from the polling stations, mostly Sunni Arabs, namely that this landmark event will hopefully mark the beginning of the end for the American-led occupation. However, the seemingly impenetrable road ahead will depend on how the leading communities Shiites and Kurds (who incidentally are Sunnis) will play their cards in the days ahead.

First and foremost, they need to bring into the fold their marginalised countrymen, the Sunni Arabs, regardless of whether they boycotted the election or remained at home because of security concerns. They can do this by including several of the Sunni leaders in the committees that the new 275-member National Assembly will be naming to help draft the new constitution which has to be ratified by a referendum in October, followed by the election of a new parliament before year's end.

A little noticed point here is that the long-dominant Sunni Arabs, who are estimated at 20 per cent of the population, hold a trump card. Under the current draft constitution, any three provinces can withhold ratification of the constitution if they vote against it. The Sunnis control four provinces.

Any chance of Iraq regaining its stature in the Arab world, if not in the region, depends on whether the Shiites, who are likely to emerge as holding the reins of power in Iraq, can bring about national unity in order to bestow legitimacy on the US-sponsored process. Otherwise, the country could slowly slide into a civil war, pitting one community against the other with eager help from the subdued terrorists who seemed perplexed by the tough measures which must have disrupted their bloody plans.

The US-appointed interim prime minister, Iyyad Allawi, who has been in office for seven months and who, reportedly, stands to retain his position as a result of the election, sensed the pitfalls ahead. He told the press: "We are entering a new era of our history and all Iraqis - whether they voted or not - should stand side by side to build their future."

He added: "Now is a suitable time for us to work together so that the whole world can watch the capabilities of this great country."

On the other hand, President George W. Bush will do well to outline his exit strategy from Iraq. He has nothing to lose since this has evidently been the expectation of all the leading Iraqi candidates, and certainly the American people. Understandably, this will not be executed overnight.

This article was published in the Friday-Saturday, February 4-5, 2005 edition of the Jordan Times. It is used here with permission.