'In the shifting sands of alliances and loyalties'

by Musa Keilani

While theories abound over who was behind the assassination of Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, the country is in internal turmoil and pressure is mounting on Syria to withdraw its forces from its neighbouring territory.

Surely, Syria was the perfect candidate for the culprit. After all, Hariri had fallen out with Damascus and was expected to put up a strong showing as opposition leader in elections this year, perhaps even winning enough seats to make a coalition government with groups hostile to Syria.

Beyond that there is the Israeli-planted "leak", going around in the media, that the US was grooming Hariri to lead Lebanon into adopting an independent position and making peace with Israel without referring to Damascus. In the Israeli-suggested scenario, the leaders of the Maronite and Druze communities, as well as most of the Sunnis, would have joined Hariri in the drive. The rationale for an independent position for Lebanon was UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which clearly stated that the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms were Syrian territory and not Lebanese.

That statement removed Lebanon from the state of conflict with Israel, since no Lebanese territory is under Israeli occupation. It also eliminated all reasons for any Lebanese group, not least of which Hizbollah, to mount attacks against Israel, and thus deprived Syria of making use of Hizbollah to maintain pressure on the Israeli state. Once Lebanon faded out of the picture, after a Hariri-led peace agreement with Israel, Syria would have been left to fend for itself in trying to settle the conflict with Israel over the occupied Golan Heights; this would have meant that Damascus had to come, sooner or later, to accept Israeli terms for "peace". Therefore, the Israeli scenario suggests very conveniently, Syria had every reason to eliminate Hariri from the scene in order to preempt the US-scripted course of events in Lebanon.

And how did Syria manage to penetrate the tight security around Hariri and time the bombing so precisely and accurately? Of course, there is the Syrian intelligence working in Lebanon in concert with its Lebanese counterpart, with the blessing of the pro-Syrian government. It is an intelligent and logical explanation which, if presented in the right package, convinces anyone that Damascus was behind the "mysterious" bomb blast which killed Hariri and more than 20 others. There is only one flaw in the hypothesis. The Syrians are not so naive to believe they could get away with murdering Hariri. Equally important, they know perfectly well that the US and Israel are eagerly awaiting the right opportunity to further shake up the regional power and political balance in Israel's favour by destabilising Syria ahead of a possible change of regime in Damascus.

It is naive on anyone's part to think that Syria gave priority to removing Hariri from the scene in order to preempt the Israeli-suggested scenario of separate Lebanese-Israeli peace that would leave Damascus out in the cold.

Even if this hypothesis is accepted, the Syrians could have found a dozen other methods to preempt such a scenario without having to resort to such a high-profile incident that could have unforeseen consequences, including a direct American/Israeli intervention in Syria itself.

At regional level, Syria knows quite well that the first country after Lebanon to be enraged by the killing would be Saudi Arabia, given the political and financial weight Riyadh had thrown behind Hariri, who made his political start in Saudi Arabia and whose Saudi connections were rock steady. Syria could not afford to alienate Saudi Arabia (none of the Arab countries whose support it needs in its tense relationship with the United States for that matter).

All these things have already happened, including open Lebanese charges that Syria was behind the killing and demands that the Syria-backed government resign since it could not guarantee the security of the former prime minister. It is no exaggeration to state that the killing of Hariri has alienated Syria from many middle-of-the-road Lebanese and unified them into an anti-Damascus camp.

In light of these predictable developments, it is simply illogical that Syria would have taken such a step as plotting and carrying out the Hariri assassination.

Who else could have benefited? One thing is clear: the claim of responsibility put up by a group claiming itself to be jihadist is definitely a red herring. It should be no surprise that such groups will continue to spring up in Lebanon and elsewhere; no intelligence investigation will be able to unearth them for the simple reason that they do not exist.

It is also clear that accurate planning by effective state intelligence has gone into the assassination. If one excludes Syria from the scene, in view of the reasons cited here, then what name comes up? Israel. What kind of record does Israeli intelligence have in Lebanon? Well, it is known - although one would never be able to prove it - that many of the car bombings in Lebanon during the civil war were the work of Israelis and their agents. Israel has an effective and efficient intelligence network in Lebanon. Israel is known to have carried out deceptive operations not only in Lebanon but also in other parts of the Arab world and beyond. Therefore, it might be a good idea for all those who point the finger for the assassination of Hariri at Syria to stop for a moment and substitute Israel for the culprit. It would definitely be a very interesting experience, and a very convincing one too, that would make much better sense.

But with all objectivity, and with the same aversion to the widespread conspiracy theory, the same exculpating rationale in Syria's favour works in Israel's favour. That leaves the labyrinth of the Lebanese scene to form part of the traditional Arab shifting sands of alliances and loyalties that saw the assassination of Riyad Solh, Kamal Junblat, Bashir Gemayel and Rashid Karami.

This article appeared in the Sunday, February 20, 2005 edition of the Jordan Times. It is used here with permission.