The Peace Process: Where Are They Now?

by Paul Scham

Washington, DC - Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has come to the US and gone.

Within a few weeks, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is expected to do the same.

What happens next? Where are we, almost half a year after Yasir Arafat's death

resuscitated a peace process that had lingered for years on life support?

We are still on track, even though it may not look like it on the surface.

Both sides say they are disappointed. Israel blames Abbas for not dismantling the

terrorist infrastructure. The Palestinians attack Sharon for not expediting

withdrawals from the West Bank, for planning new settlements and for releasing far

fewer prisoners than they have demanded.

The fact is both leaders are walking a very shaky tightrope between significant

parts of their populations who are sceptical about peace and any promises made by

the other side on the one hand, and other portions of their populations, the world

community and President Bush on the other, who are demanding they move forward. The

American adage that "all politics is local" is just as true in the Middle East.

Prime Minister Sharon has been deserted by a major part of his right-wing

constituency and is keeping his position through the votes of left wing parties who

have, until recently, seen him as personifying everything that is wrong with Israeli

policy. Sharon also has to show the centre and moderate right of Israel's political

spectrum that he has not completely joined the "peace camp" of his opponents and

that he still stands for West Bank settlement. He himself is naturally suspicious of

Palestinian promises and does not believe in over-extending himself to understand

the difficulties of the Palestinians. The withdrawal from Gaza, set for this summer,

has raised p

assions to a degree even greater than they were in1995, before Prime Minister Rabin

was assassinated.

President Abbas, on the other hand, is a new leader whose main strength and main

weakness are exactly the same - that he is not Yasir Arafat.

From all indications, he accepts absolutely the proposition that Palestinian

violence in the current context is counter-productive. Nevertheless, considerable

portions of Palestinian society identify with the Islamist groups that have, until

recently, been carrying out suicide bombings against Israeli civilians and soldiers

alike, and who do not recognize the Jewish state.

He knows that if he attempts to "dismantle" these groups, the result would be an

immediate civil war, which he would not necessarily win. Abbas is attempting to

co-opt their voters rather than attacking them. But it depends on proving he can get

more concessions from Israel through peaceful means than the extremists can achieve

through violence, which they threaten to renew. So far, the concessions from Israel

have not been great.

So why is there room for optimism?

The fact is that if the Intifada, suicide bombings and targeted killings of the last

four years accomplished anything, it was to show both populations that violence

could easily break out again and continue indefinitely.

Paradoxically, significant elements of both sides also feel they have proved their

ability to survive what they perceive as attempts to annihilate their nation. This

perception can lead in either direction. Either "we can withstand anything they to

do us," or "we can make peace from strength." Hamas and the settler leadership

stress the first. Abbas and Sharon stress the second.

Now that President Bush appears to be directly involved, there is someone to keep

the two sides on track. An active US participation in the process is essential.

While the rest of the world may not love, like, or even respect the US President,

they know that Bush is the only one who has a chance of brokering peace. And

ultimately, the leaders of the two sides know this too and cannot ignore his

pressure.

Israel will continue to object to Abbas's patience with terrorists. The Palestinians

will continue to fulminate against settlements. And, of course, the process could

actually derail -by design or by accident. But it is not as fragile as it looks.

It will be a long road to peace and both sides will complain bitterly all the way.

Violence will not stop. But chances are good that the process will continue, a

Palestinian state will come into existence and a form of bittersweet peace will take

hold.

That may not sound like heaven, but compared to the last four years - or the last 60

- it is something to pray for. And with persistence, we may actually see our prayers

answered.

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* Paul Scham is an adjunct scholar with the Middle East Institute. He is the

co-editor of the recently released book, Shared Histories: A Palestinian-Israeli

Dialogue, and has worked on joint Israeli-Palestinian projects at the Truman

Institute at Hebrew University and served as the Washington representative for

Americans for Peace Now .

Source: Middle East Institute, April 19, 2005.

Visit the Middle East Institute Online: www.mideasti.org

Distributed by the Common Ground News Service.

Copyright permission has been obtained for publication.