The last option

by Nizar Abdel-Kader

The first attempt by Iran and Syria to create a strategic alliance was in 1980: Syria, alone of the Arab states, took the side of non-Arab Iran when it was attacked by the now toppled regime of Saddam Hussein.

The most recent effort to strengthen these strategic ties came during the visit of the Syrian prime minister, Naji al-Otari, to Tehran on February 15, one day after the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister.

The proposal for such a Syrian-Iranian front was made by Otari in an attempt to counter new pressures on Syria by the US and the international community, with whom relations soured after the Hariri assassination, in addition to the pressures created by the massive Lebanese rallies demonstrating against the Syrian presence in Lebanon. Nevertheless Kamal Kharazi, the Iranian foreign affairs minister, minimized the front's importance, observing that its creation was not "their primary objective".

Downplaying the strategic alliance, however, came at a time when Iran and Syria, both staunch opponents of the United States and Israel, were under increased international pressure. Both countries are accused of working together to derail the peace efforts between the Palestinians and the Israelis by providing assistance to Hizballah, Hamas, and other radical groups. While the Iranians are suspected of conducting secret research to acquire a nuclear bomb, Syria, for its part, is undergoing extensive international scrutiny aimed at hastening its withdrawal from Lebanon. Both Damascus and Tehran are also accused by Washington of backing Iraq's insurgency by leaving their porous borders open to Arab and "jihadi" Muslim fighters.

In the past two decades, Iran and Syria have enjoyed close strategic relations based on their bilateral interests. Hafez Assad concluded several important treaties of cooperation with Iran covering the political, economic and military fields. The depth of this alliance is indicated by the creation of a "Higher Iranian-Syrian Joint Committee" whose purpose is to ensure policy cooperation between the two states in virtually every area, including developments in Lebanon, Iraq and the Palestinian territories.

The Tehran-Damascus strategic alliance continued to develop under Bashar Assad, and the two countries are prepared for even greater coordination. In Iranian President Khatami's words, the principles formulated by the late Syrian leader have "always been bilateral and have steadily improved".

As two strategic allies in the turbulent Middle East, Tehran and Damascus hold common views on a wide range of regional and international issues, including their hostility to the US occupation of Iraq and to Israel.

Both countries systematically backed Hizballah in resisting and fighting Israeli occupation of a portion of South Lebanon known as the "security zone." In order for violence to be an effective tool of its diplomacy, Syria maintained firm control over Hizballah at the strategic level, ranging from coordinating military operations to indirect mediation with the Israelis through the April 1996 understanding.

After the Israeli withdrawal from South Lebanon in May 2000, observers expected Hizballah to focus on economic reconstruction in the South. However, after a short lull it launched a new war at Sheba Farms. Meanwhile, Syria prevented the deployment of the Lebanese army in the South. With growing pressures calling for a Syrian military withdrawal from Lebanon, the Syrians found in Hizballah (and other proxies) favorable allies.

Opposition to Damascus has been growing among all sectarian communities in Lebanon, as evidenced in a recent rally of one million citizens. Yet following Assad's decision to withdraw all his troops by April 30, Hizballah's unqualified support for Syrian influence has continued, while Iran has remained silent.

The complications of the assassination of Hariri and the Syrian withdrawal, along with the complexities of the Iranian nuclear issue, have created a tense situation in Lebanon and in the region. No wonder the news about the "unified front" between Syria and Iran gives rise to concern among many regional parties and the US. The Bush administration has defined both nations as its antagonists in the Middle East and relations with them have become extremely tense, including the possibility of enforcing international sanctions against them. In addition, Iran is facing US and Israeli military threats against its nuclear installations.

Under such pressures, and in the absence of active dialogue with the US, the two countries may exercise what they feel is the only possible option remaining open to them: to create under the auspices of Tehran a new, dangerous alliance encompassing Hizballah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the PFLP General Command, as a spearhead of resistance to US interests and to Israel.

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- Published 7/4/2005 (c) bitterlemons-international.org. Used here with permission.

Nizar Abdel-Kader is a columnist and political analyst at Ad-Diyar newspaper in Lebanon.