You are hereHamas Wins Palestinian Elections / Q: Is there any positive side to this?

Q: Is there any positive side to this?


A: Yes, there are opportunities in this surprising turn of events. One of the biggest difficulties over the years of dealing with Fatah, particularly under Yasir Arafat's was a disconnect between the negotiations with Israel and the US and the attitudes among the Palestinian population. Particularly on the issue of refugees, the terms of negotiations were always very different from what the populace was prepared to accept. Hamas is likely to force the issue into greater clarity. The refugee issue is the hardest one to deal with, because it is absolutely fundamental to Palestinian nationalism and is also the one area where Israelis are almost universally united in being unwilling to see anything more than a token return of refugees. This issue can't be resolved unless both sides are really negotiating based on the feelings of their people, and in the past Palestinian negotiators have not done this.

The Fatah leadership that has been leading negotiations is very much removed from the Palestinian street. Hamas is very much in touch with it. This would allow for much greater clarity, and, if compromises can be found (which will certainly be more difficult with Hamas, but still not impossible) they will be much more likely to be accepted by the Palestinian masses than the sort of deals Fatah tended to discuss. In fact, the legitimacy which Hamas has now means both greater difficulty but also greater clarity and confidence in all negotiations. If Hamas can be persuaded to strike a deal, it will be one that will pass the muster of the Palestinian street, something Fatah could never guarantee.

Hamas also now has the incentive to continue to refrain from attacks on Israeli civilians. More than that, they have incentive to bring all the militias under the PA's control. And they have the political and military cache to do it, in a way Fatah did not any longer.

November 22 2008

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