Q: What can we expect in the coming days?

A: It is almost impossible to predict where things will go from here. Fatah finds itself outside of whatever power exists among the Palestinians for the first time in more than forty years. There is a lot of anger in Fatah, against Hamas, against Israel and against its own outgoing leadership. There have been a few violent incidents and Fatah has already declared its intention to be a very vocal opposition.

It is not clear what kind of deals Hamas will make to form a coalition government or even if it will do so. Hamas has enough seats to control the government without a coalition, so if coalition-building proves untenable, they have the option not to pursue it. They are currently putting a great deal of effort into bringing Fatah into a coalition government, but thus far Fatah has remained adamant in its refusal.

One thing that is likely is that Hamas will try to focus inward first and leave the nagging question of the Israel, the US and the occupation until later. This is sensible, as it will give them the opportunity to root out corruption in the PA, thereby increasing its effectiveness. Then they will need to make the hard choices about whether to change their stances or how to accommodate the Palestinians' and the rest of the world's desire to see negotiations commence again.

Israel and the US would do well to put the onus on Hamas to negotiate by accepting the Beirut Declaration of 2002 as a basis for resuming negotiations (which does not mean accepting their terms whole cloth, something Israel would obviously not do). This would force the issue of recognition and negotiation and would really turn the heat up on Hamas to sit down and negotiate a deal. It could prove a turning point, but it is not going to happen. As sensible as such a move would be for everyone, even the Israeli Labor Party has immediately turned to a call for more "unilateral moves" in the wake of the election, and the Bush Administration is certainly not going to compromise its "anti-terror" rhetoric in this regard.

There is the real possibility that Hamas will try to meet the conditions the US has set forth for being a "legitimate partner" on some level. Hamas could try to make some declaration about this (one of their leaders has already said that Hamas would respect agreements made by previous Palestinian governments, whether they agreed with them or not) and see if that was enough. It is highly unlikely they will change their charter any time in the foreseeable future. They have already announced their intention to integrate their militia with PA forces, though this may prove more difficult than it sounds. Many observers, including some inside Hamas, feel that by running in the elections, Hamas has de facto accepted the Oslo framework.

For the time being, Hamas is probably going to focus on rooting out corruption in the PA and will maintain the "quiet" with Israel, as long as Israel does the same. It seems likely that Israel will do so, although with their own elections coming up, acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will be very deliberate about how he approaches the Hamas-led PA. He could decide that increasing actions in the West Bank or even extra-judicial killings would bolster his position. But this doesn't seem immediately likely. The other militant groups like Islamic Jihad and the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade may decide that it is now time for them to ramp up their operations. The al-Aqsa Martyrs in particular, being a breakaway faction of Fatah, may wish to immediately de-stabilize the Hamas government. It is a certainty that Hamas will now be blamed for every attack, whether they had anything to with it or not, much as Fatah was in the past, only amplified. It is in their interests to try to bring the other armed groups under control. Whether they can or even wish to do so remains to be seen.

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This document was prepared by Jewish Voice for Peace. It is used here with permission.

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